The artificial intelligence of the Qotmii application places Éric Zemmour neck and neck with Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, and predicts the presence of the Reconquest candidate! in the second round. Can we trust this AI? Find out everything you need to know.
Kantar, Ipsos, OpinionWay, IFOP… all polling institutes announce a crushing defeat for Éric Zemmour in the first round of the presidential election, with a score around 10%. However, artificial intelligence is not of this opinion.
At least, Qotmii mobile app AI available on iOS and Android announces a sparkling victory for the Reconquest candidate! in the first round. According to his latest predictions, as of April 4, 2022, Zemmour would total 21.5% of the votes. He would rise to second place, just behind Emmanuel Macron with 24.8% of the vote and far ahead of Marine Le Pen in third place at 15.1%.
Widely criticized by opponents of Z, acclaimed by its supporters, this AI offers a counter-current prognosis. So, what credibility can we give him?
How does Qotmii work? What is its methodology?
The company Qotmii is based in Quebec. It was founded in 2019. Previously, its parent company Filteris, founded by Jérôme Coutard, already offered predictions for the elections.
On its official website, Qotmii explains that its ranking reflects the “electoral potential” of each candidate. It is generated by artificial intelligence.
The firm presents its tool as ” search engine ” and one ” trend simplifyer at the frontier of neuroscience, marketing and social psychology “.
Press int., nat., region.
150 million calculations / day 😅
— QOTMII (@QotMii) January 20, 2022
His algorithm scans the entire web, and scans press articles and social networks to analyze opinion. This methodology is therefore based on principles commonly used by digital marketing agencies.
According to Jérôme Coutard, creator of Qotmii, sciences such as linguistic analysis and psychology can be combined with artificial intelligence to ” capture and analyze in near real time the sensitivities, perceptions “. The application thus collects vast volumes of data, and performs 150 million calculations every day.
All information referring to policies and candidates is collected. It is an influence diagnostic tool. Only the most visible information such as publications widely shared on the networks or large media articles are taken into account, because this is what type of content that can influence individuals and groups. Thus, Qotmii believes that the press and social media are ” both mirrors and guides of public opinion “.
However, Qotmii does not present its ranking as an illustration of voting intentions. Rather, the objective is to determine the weight of each candidate within the digital space. Thus, this hierarchy could reflect the omnipresence of Zemmour on social networks without presaging a victory through the ballot box.
In addition to the ranking of electoral potential, the application offers other lists. We find two popularity rankings, whose methodology is not presented. On these two rankings, Éric Zemmour comes in fourth place behind Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Prime Minister Jean Castex.
To convert the feelings and emotions analyzed via social networks into voting intentions, Qotmii is based on “ values and counter-values that are at the heart of perceptions or sensitivities of groups and individuals “. As Jérôme Coutard explains, these values are the ” criteria of the desirable and the hateful specific to a given society at a given time and carry both meaning and emotions.
According to him, the debate and the content collected by AI are mainly structured around two values: loyalty and treachery. These two fundamental values are carriers of adhesion or rejection which will weigh on the intentions of vote, even on the vote itself “. By capturing the values that take precedence in the eyes of voters, and therefore their emotions, Qotmii believes that it is able to identify their convictions and cognitive dissonances on which all the suspense of the election rests…
What are the advantages of Qotmii compared to traditional surveys?
The technology allows Qotmii to analyze opinions, without the need to ask voters questions like in traditional polls. According to Jérome Coutard, traditional pollsters also use this approach to overcome the problem of non-respondents. This assertion is also in line with the opinion of Eric Zemmour, according to whom there is a “hidden vote” in his favour.
In addition, the pollsters operate with a quota system aimed at representing all of France. For its part, Qotmii seeks to capture sources as diverse as possible to represent the entire spectrum of French political opinions, from the far left to the far right.
Another strong point: Qotmii collects data continuously, and uses this data to calculate the odds. This tool constantly identifies perceptions, feelings, values and emotions. However, emotions (and therefore voting intentions) can change depending on events. A single murder sentence or a court case can upend opinions, and traditional polls cannot be responsive enough.
What were Qotmii’s predictions for the 2017 presidential election?
In view of the official description of Qotmii, one could deduce that its ranking does not reflect the probability of a victory for Éric Zemmour. However, it must be recognized that this AI provided predictions close to the final result in previous elections. And often more accurate than traditional surveys.
Before the creation of Qotmii in 2019, its parent company Filteris already offered predictions for the results of the presidential elections. This company specializes in online reputation management.
Surveys #Qotmii at 1 week elections/ Estimation vs. reality
➡️ 2012 #Holland 28.5% vs. 28.6%#Sarkozy 27.8% vs. 27.2%
➡️ 2017#Macron 20% vs. 23.9%#The pen 22.7% vs. 21.4%#Fillon 21.6% vs. 19.9%#LFI 21.3% vs. 19.6%
➡️ 2022#Macron 24.8%#Zemmour 21.5%#RN 15.1%#IVoteZemmour
— Silver Surfer Ⓩ (@silver_surfer) April 5, 2022
In 2017, the firm placed itself in alternative to traditional surveys. It was already promoting its system based on Big Data analysis and artificial intelligence.
At the beginning of March, Filteris announced the qualification of François Fillon in the second round. The LR candidate had only reached third position in the end, probably because of “the Fillon affair”.
A week before the April 23 election, Filteris estimated that Emmanuel Macron would finish in fourth place and would be surpassed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. In the end, the candidate En Marche came first in the first round while the candidate of La France Insoumise finished in fourth place.
In addition, Filteris has also cheated in the open primary of the right and the center in 2017. She had predicted a duel between François Fillon and Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round, but Alain Juppé had managed to steal the show from the ex-president.
Similarly, Filteris’ AI had predicted Manuel Valls’ victory over Arnaud Montebourg at the primary citizen of the Socialist Party. The PS candidate chosen by the voters was finally Benoît Hamon.
Nevertheless, despite these erroneous predictions, Filteris managed to propose estimates relatively close to reality one week before the previous elections.
In 2012, she announced a score of 28.5% for François Hollande and 27.8% for Nicolas Sarkozy. The two candidates finally obtained 28.6% and 27.2% of the vote respectively.
In 2017, she predicted the scores of 20% for Macron, 22.7% for LePen, 21.6% for Fillon and 21.3% for LFI. The actual results were 23.9% for Macron, 21.4% for LePen, 19.9% for Fillon and 19.6% for LFI.
On Qotmii (ex Filteris who was only wrong by 1 point on average in 2017) Zemmour is well into the second round. 😊🗳 pic.twitter.com/DhQwee4L6F
— Damien Rieu (@DamienRieu) April 5, 2022
In total, out of all of Filteris’ estimates for the 11 candidates in the first round of the 2017 presidential election, the average deviation is only 1.07% between predictions and actual results. Suffice to say that Qotmii’s AI was not that far from reality.
However, water has flowed under the bridge since 2017. firm has improved its algorithms, and corrected its weaknesses in order to reduce the margin of error. Thus, the result of the first round of the 2022 election could indeed create a surprise…
Qotmii’s prediction for the 2022 presidential election
In January 2022, Qotmii perceived a trend opposite to that captured by pollsters. His AI predicted Eric Zemmour between 19% and 21% in first or second position. The candidate Reconquest! was then ahead of Emmanuel Macron who only reached 16% to 19%, even though the pollsters saw him between 22% and 26%.
For her part, Marine Le Pen oscillated between second and third position with a score similar to that predicted by the pollsters: between 16% and 18%. Among left-wing candidates, only Jean-Luc Mélenchon managed to pull out of the game with odds between 12% and 14.5%.
As of April 4, 2022, less than a week before the first round, Qotmii gives Eric Zemmour a 21.5% rating behind Emmanuel Macron at 24.8%. Next would come Marine LePen at 15%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 11.8%, and Valérie Pécresse at 5.8%. See you on April 10, 2022 to find out if the predictions were right…
We want to say thanks to the writer of this short article for this incredible material
Qotmii: all about the AI that predicts Zemmour’s victory in the presidential election – LeBigData.fr
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