For several days, the campaign team of the candidate of Reconquest! uses the results of polls from the Qotmii application to claim much higher figures in the first round.
“CONFIDENTIAL, QOTMI poll of April 8, Zemmour and Macron in the 2nd round”. Many French people received this Friday, April 8 a text message from Eric Zemmour’s campaign team promoting the Qotmii application survey. Very different from Ifop, Odoxa or Ipsos type institutes, this application, based on artificial intelligence, prides itself on measuring the “buzz” of candidates on social networks.
These text messages from Zemmour are mostly an outright lie:
1. There is nothing confidential
2. QOTMII is an app that measures “buzz” on the Web
3. This is not a poll at all
4. The methodology is not explained
— Raphael Grably (@GrablyR) April 8, 2022
As Qotmii indicates on its site, the application “captures and analyzes people’s emotions” on social issues via social networks. It works differently from conventional polling institutes, as explained by our colleagues from Parisian, with in particular an artificial intelligence which makes it possible to give an “electoral potential” and not voting intentions. Qotmii presents this AI as “a search engine” and a “trends simplifyer”.
A hazy methodology
Mystery reigns around how this indicator is provided. According to the methodology explained, the “buzz” or “noise” of each candidate is calculated from social networks. “Thousands of articles, information and opinions (general, regional, specialized press, blogs, forums, social platforms) are “synthesized” in “real time”. Candidates present on social networks therefore have a better chance of being well represented in Qotmii results.
The polls have always been wrong since 1995. They must not be believed. The artificial intelligence, which predicted Trump’s victory, gives me the 2nd round.#IMakeThePolls Lie #IVoteZemmourApril 10 #Elections2022pic.twitter.com/TXk3fzONMb
— Eric Zemmour (@ZemmourEric) April 8, 2022
Fillon before Zemmour
As the site explains lebigdata.fr, before 2019 and the creation of Qotmii, its “ancestor” Filteris founded by the same man Jérôme Coutard, operated on a similar model to provide predictions on the presidential elections. And during the previous campaign it was the supporters of François Fillon who put forward this technology.
As for Eric Zemmour, in 2017, Filteris provided for the qualification of François Fillon in the second round. If the percentages were close, the LR candidate had finally reached only third position. A failure which combines with the fact that Filteris had estimated that Emmanuel Macron would finish in fourth place in the ballot.
Surveys #Qotmii at 1 week elections/ Estimation vs. reality
➡️ 2012 #Holland 28.5% vs. 28.6%#Sarkozy 27.8% vs. 27.2%
➡️ 2017#Macron 20% vs. 23.9%#The pen 22.7% vs. 21.4%#Fillon 21.6% vs. 19.9%#LFI 21.3% vs. 19.6%
➡️ 2022#Macron 24.8%#Zemmour 21.5%#RN 15.1%#IVoteZemmour
— Silver Surfer Ⓩ (@silver_surfer) April 5, 2022
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Presidential: SMS with questionable polls from the Qotmii application sent by Eric Zemmour’s team
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