These advanced technologies that predict the success of an advertisement

Cadbury’s marketing teams used a specialist company to predict the success of an advertisement using an online test system.

Cadbury's marketing teams used a specialist company to predict the success of an advertisement using an online test system.

©DR/Cadbury/Youtube Screenshot

Key to success

Henry Ford used to say that half of his advertising budget was completely useless, but his problem was that it was impossible to determine which of these halves… Would he be happier today?

Atlantico: In 2007, the Cadbury Group, a British food company specializing in confectionery and soft drinks, launched an advertisement for chocolate bars featuring a gorilla playing a drum. The marketing teams thought the flop would be inevitable and called in a specialist company that predicted advertising success through an online test system that analyzed emotional responses of a small panel of individuals. Eventually it was a hit and the ad was voted Britain’s favorite. To what extent can technology predict the success of an advertisement?

Jean-Paul Brunier: The technology initially made it possible to considerably reduce the costs of exposure to tests on much larger scales thanks to online tests, pre-tests, post-tests, monitoring tools, etc. They also make it possible to gain in depth in terms of collecting people’s reactions, especially emotional ones. The Cadbury case is nevertheless a form of exception in the use of tests to make the decision to choose a radical and therefore risky creative path. In the vast majority of cases, the use of advertising tests tends to “average” the risk. The question that arises for decision-makers is not so much the extent of support but that of the objectors to the disruptive idea, which often determines more conservative attitudes in organizations.

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Human decision, courage and risk taking: here is an element that is not about to disappear, large organizations are designed to minimize risk, technology is not on the verge of eliminating human decision , called management, and I think that’s a good thing.

Henry Ford used to say that half of his advertising budgets were completely useless, but his problem was that it was impossible to determine which of those halves. Did we solve the problem today?

This question is largely solved today thanks to the immediacy of real-time analyzes that the use of the Web offers and this is only the beginning. The tools allow both to consolidate the analysis, to reduce the cost but also to segment, therefore to identify and therefore to concentrate the allocation of resources on the most interesting targets. They are increasingly making it possible to optimize messages to adapt them to these targets.

Exceptional successes are the least predictable, again, tests leading to planetary successes like the Gorilla are extremely rare.

Can we imagine that future technology will make it possible to target the success of an advertisement more effectively, in particular with the development of artificial intelligence? Should we expect a generalization of this practice?

The next revolution will come from AI, which will make it possible to optimize creative content in real time. Hail, a French company is already at the forefront in what will undoubtedly lead to a revolution: continuously improving content in real time and in a perfectly informed manner.

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These advanced technologies that predict the success of an advertisement


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